Mike Evans Has Top 5 Upside In 2021

 Jason Bick

Patrick Mahomes: Dynasty Outlook

Taylor is going as a top-8 pick which is insanely overvalued! The sophomore RB is looking to obtain notable regression. He is currently the most overdrafted player in the 1st-round.
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Starting off with the new QB situation. Philip Rivers is known for targeting his RBs. Rivers directed 25% of his passes to RBs since 2006! This is while the league average pass percentage to RBs is ~16%. 
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To go along with Rivers departure, Wentz isn’t necessarily notorious for implementing his RBs. When Wentz and Frank Reich were together back in 2018 on the Eagles, the RBs were not primarily used in the passing, nor rushing game. The Eagles passed the ball the 7th-most in the NFL in 2018 (62%). The RBs on the Eagles also accounted for the 7th-fewest targets in the league (190 Targets).
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Taylor is the undisputed RB1 in Indianapolis, but the target distribution is still worrisome. As I mentioned before with the Wentz/Reich combo and their limited utilization of RBs, the RB1 on the Eagles only had 89 targets (9th-fewest)! Don’t forget, Nyheim Hines is still on that roster and was the designated pass-catching back.
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Marlon Mack was brought back by the Colts this season. A large portion of Taylor’s explosion was due to Mack’s injury. Mack contributed to 247 carries in 2019! He won’t retain that workload, but that is a huge concern.
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The trio of Hines, Mack, and Taylor will certainly be utilized with Frank Reich’s offense. He has always implemented a RBBC and will continue to do so.
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But what about Taylor’s end of season explosion? He lead the way to finish as the RB6? 
There are actually many reasons of concern here. Let’s first take a look at the opponents run defenses:
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Green Bay (6th-worst)
Houston (2x) (2nd-worst)
Las Vegas (4th-worst)
Pittsburgh (6th-best)
Jacksonville (3rd-worst)
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It doesn’t get much easier than that. Another bit about this run was Taylor’s snap percentage. He averaged ~61% of snaps, meaning he didn’t even get elite usage.
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Taylor is being severely overvalued! He is arguably worth his 1st-round adp as it is. Spending a top-8 pick isn’t worth it. Overdrafted.

- @fantasyfootball.knowitall

Jonathan Taylor is the most overdrafted player in the 1st-round

Jonathan Taylor - Overvalued

Kyle Pitts is the best skill-position player in this draft class. At 6’6 and 240 lbs he is bound for success in the NFL. His physical attributes are similar to TE Darren Waller (6’6 and 256 lbs), who had a dominant year this past year. He also ran a remarkable 4.44 40 time. Arthur Smith's offense has always been heavily reliant on tight ends. They  were responsible for 29.6 percent of the Titans targets last year, which was the fourth most in the NFL. Pitts is built like a TE, but he can also play WR because of his WR-like route-running and speed. Pitts is not going to threaten anybody with his blocking skills, but he is a matchup nightmare. He is too big for cornerbacks and safeties and he’s too fast for linebackers. 
In 2020 he caught 12 touchdowns in just 8 games and won the Mackey award. Florida utilized Pitts in a variety of ways by putting him at the end of the line, aligned in the slot or flexed out wide. He didn’t drop a pass in his 66 times targeted in 2020. 
Pitts proved he will transition well to the NFL when he matched up vs tough corners in the SEC. He faced stars like Jaycee Horn (South Carolina), Tyson Campbell (Georgia), and Kelvin Joseph (Kentucky) and still produced great numbers. 
With Julio Jones leaving the team it creates a huge opportunity for Kyle Pitts. In my projections Kyle Pitts would’ve had around 90 targets with Julio in Atlanta but now that he left, Pitts will have around 125 targets. The only tight ends who had more targets are Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, 2 elite tight ends.
From a fantasy outlook, Pitts is arguably the best player (regardless of position) in this Draft class. He could very easily enter into the top-5 NFL TE. He possesses an unexplainable ability to sink in and out of his routes. He draws physical comps to Las Vegas’ Darren Waller and on the Falcons’ offense he can produce huge numbers. At a fantasy football position mired with mediocrity, Pitts offers tremendous upside. He can rise to the levels of Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.


Draft the man who's about to shatter every rookie TE record. 

Defensive Nightmare

THREE PLAYERS TO BUY
CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE (RB, Chiefs)
After Kansas City took Clyde as the last pick of the first round in 2020 and Damien Williams opted out of the season, an enormous amount of hype was put on him and he never quite lived up to the expectation. Truth be told, the offensive line was a bit shoddy and Andy Reid never really built a game plan that utilized him to the best of his abilities. This offseason, however, the Chiefs traded their first-round pick (and a couple of others) to the Baltimore Ravens in order to acquire offensive tackle, Orlando Brown, and then took Creed Humphrey at center in round 2 to help fix some holes in the line. CEH has a dynamic skill set and should start to see more opportunities in this high-powered offense and is a great buy if you can find him at a decent price.

JUSTIN HERBERT (QB, Chargers)
Justin Herbert had a wild 2020 which began with an impromptu start after Tyrod Taylor suffered an unfortunate injury at the hands of the team doctor during a week 2 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Herbert was truly a gem in fantasy last year, racking up 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns, and owners that were lucky enough to draft him will be reaping the rewards for years to come. Los Angeles smartly put the focus in this year’s draft on getting their new star some help by drafting two good interior lineman (Rashawn Slater and Brendan James) and a Mike Williams clone with Josh Palmer in the 3rd round. If there is any chance you could snag him with any first-round pick, do not hesitate. Smash that accept button.

TEE HIGGINS (WR, Bengals)
The Cincinnati Bengals, surprisingly, took Joe Burrow’s LSU teammate, WR Ja’Marr Chase with their early first-round pick this year instead of getting their star QB some much-needed protection. This instantly caused Higgins’ stock to drop and reduced his price tag for many worried owners. Higgins saw 24 deep targets last year and had a target quality rating of 7.2 (3rd best in the league). This might be the perfect opportunity to grab the explosive deep threat WR before his stock rises again.

THREE PLAYERS TO SELL
SAM DARNOLD (QB, Panthers)
This offseason Darnold moved from New York to Carolina and many fantasy owners were viewing him as a must-buy in dynasty leagues. Breaking free from an Adam Gase system will have that effect on a player’s stock. Even under Gase however, Darnold never seemed to make the most of the limited pass attempts he had. He was in the bottom-five of QB rankings for almost every fantasy-relevant category. He was 33rd in the league with 6.1 yards per attempt and he had an accuracy rating of 7, which was 30th in the league. This should be a good chance to sell him for more than he is worth based on the new situation alone.

ADAM THIELEN (WR, Vikings)
After starting hot in the 2021 season, Thielen’s fantasy numbers dropped off significantly as Justin Jefferson’s target share increased in the second half. During weeks 1-9 Thielen had a target share of 27.8% and Jefferson saw 44 targets for a share of 21.1%. This flip-flopped dramatically beginning in week 10 though and Thielen saw his target share decrease to 16.2%, while Jefferson’s rose to 26.3%. This seemed to indicate that the Vikings were leaning more toward Jefferson as their WR1. We’re not saying that Thielen can’t continue his efficiency as a solid starting fantasy WR in dynasty but now might be the time to pull the trigger on this aging touchdown producer. Put him on the trade block and see what he nets you.

MELVIN GORDON (RB, Broncos)
We have Gordon on here mostly because of the age factor. He’s been a consistent fantasy contributor for the last 3 years now and even while competing for touches with Phillip Lindsay, he managed to stay fantasy relevant and was a decent plug-and-play option. However, he’s now the dreaded age of 28, and that usually signals a decline in a running backs’ career. Most of us know that the prime age for an RB is 27, meaning that up until that age, the average running back should continue to improve, and once they reach that peak as a whole they tend to be less productive. A lack of efficiency did show up last year in the form of yards per touch. He logged a 4.6 yards per touch average which was 41st in the league. Target owners in your league who are looking to build depth, or add a little more consistency at RB and you should be able to return max value for Gordon.


The 2021 NFL draft has been completed. Whether you’re looking for that last piece to complete your dynasty squad or you’re ready to dump some heavy baggage, here are some tips for the 2021 campaign. 

2021 POST DRAFT BUY / SELL

Aj Brown
Aj Brown broke out this 2020 season finishing as a WR1 despite missing 2 games. With the departure of many offensive assets, Brown looks to explode.
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If you were to take Brown’s average sig ppg (17 ppg) and add that into the 2 missing games he missed, then he would’ve finished as a top-10 WR. 
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Brown already ranks 7th in target share, but with the departure of Humphries, Smith, and Davis, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at #1 on that list. The Titans only acquisition to help replace their offensive losses is signing former Ram, Josh Reynolds.
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Brown is now the only receiving reliable weapon on this deadly offense. With 215 vacated targets (2nd-most in the NFL,) this leaves ~16 targets a game. Brown certainly won’t get all of them, but an increase is almost a guarantee.
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Now with the increase in targets, it would be nice to know if he can produce with them. Brown placed top-10 in yards per target and top-3 in yards per route. He also was 7th in fantasy points per target with 2.28
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Brown is certain to excel and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a top-5 finish. With the drastic increase of usage, Brown looks to be a high upside WR1.

- @fantasyfootball.knowitall

Top-5 WR?

AJ Brown

    Terrace Marshall is one of the trickiest prospects to gauge in this wide receiver class because he only played in seven games in 2020, and in 2019 he was competing with Ja’marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, which led to a mere 10.8% target share. Consequently, he has a small sample size of statistics to pull from. There are certainly questions and uncertainties when it comes to Marshall, but his potential is through the roof provided that he finds the right home.
    When analyzing wide receiver prospects, there are two things that have a significant correlation to success in the NFL: college dominator and breakout age. His college dominator was 46.5% (92nd percentile). This means that Marshall accounted for nearly a half of all of LSU’s receiving production in the seven games that he played in last season. Additionally, Marshall broke out at the age of 19.2, which put him at the 86th percentile. Terrace Marshall certainly passes the eye test when it comes to whether or not he will succeed at the next level.
    Marshall is also a great athlete. He is in the 80th percentile or better in his speed score, 40-yard dash time, and burst score. Between this athleticism, and his six-foot-two, 205 pound frame, Marshall is built like an NFL receiver. 
     The biggest concern with Marshall is his efficiency. In 2020, he averaged 15.2 yards per reception, which falls in the 57th percentile. He also had a poor catch rate at 68.6%. The good news is that this can be fixed, and Marshall can improve upon these numbers at the next level.
    Terrace Marshall was drafted by the Carolina Panthers where he will reunite with offensive coordinator Joe Brady. In college, Marshall ran routes both outside, and in the slot. Marshall’s skillset and 6-2 frame screams outside WR in the NFL, so I would expect to see Marshall on the outside and DJ Moore in the slot for the majority of snaps. Joe Brady has a tendency to spread the ball around his offense, and we saw that last season when DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel all averaged roughly 14 fantasy points per game. With Sam Darnold under center, who I consider to be an upgrade from Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina should have no problem producing three top thirty fantasy wide receivers again in 2021. Additionally, there are 157 targets up for grabs in Carolina’s offense with Mike Davis and Curtis Samuel gone. I think you can expect Marshall to finish as a mid-to-low WR3 in 2021, so he is certainly worth considering in redraft leagues depending on where his ADP falls. Marshall is one of the more intriguing WR’s from a dynasty perspective because both Robby Anderson and DJ Moore are set to become free agents after this season, and while it is unlikely that the Panthers let both of them walk, you never know. Marshall could be stepping into an alpha WR1 role as soon as 2022 if a few things go his way.


An immediate top 30 fantasy WR

Terrace Marshall

Javonte Williams is arguably the best running back in this draft class. As a matter of fact, some NFL teams actually had him ranked as their number one prospect. Last season at North Carolina, Williams averaged 103.6 rushing yards per game on 14.3 carries per game, for a whopping 7.3 yards per carry. Additionally, while Williams lacked volume in the passing game, he was sneaky efficient with an 83.3% catch rate and 12.2 yards per reception. He also found the end zone 22 times in 11 games. If you were to translate his statistics to fantasy football, Javonte Williams would have averaged 27.4 fantasy points per game at the college level. 
    Another thing that is really appealing about Javonte Williams, especially from a dynasty perspective, is his career usage. Thus far, Williams has accumulated just 416 total touches in his college career. Compare this to the other two top running back prospects in this class - Najee Harris and Travis Etienne - who have 718 and 788 career touches, respectively. This is a great sign for Williams’ longevity in the NFL.
    Javonte Williams is not the type of running back that is going to blow you away with his speed, but he is a shifty and physical runner that makes him deadly in the open field. He is the type of back that you have confidence in to get a couple yards in short yardage situations, and the type of back that you do not want to tackle once he gets moving. If I had to choose between Williams, Harris, and Etienne to win a one-on-one in the open field, I would pick Williams without hesitation.
    The Denver Broncos couldn’t pass up on Javonte Williams in the early second round of the NFL draft, and I don’t blame them. While there could have been better landing spots for him from a redraft perspective, there could not have been a much better landing spot for Williams from a dynasty perspective. Melvin Gordon is a free agent after this season, so Javonte Williams should be stepping into a workhorse role in 2022. However. who says that Williams cannot take over the Broncos backfield at some point this season? Gordon’s efficiency and production didn’t blow anyone away last year, so Williams could most certainly earn a featured role as soon as this season. And even if the backfield remains a split, Williams has proved that he can be productive in a split backfield at UNC with Michael Carter. Given Williams’ explosiveness and efficiency, he can be a productive fantasy RB2 on roughly 15 touches per game this season. A realistic finish for Williams in redraft leagues this season would be in the range of 15-20. The future could be bright for Williams, especially if the Broncos can acquire an elite QB.      


The Broncos drafted the best RB in this class

Javonte Williams

Tom Brady

In his first season as a Buccaneer, Brady defied the odds and won the Super Bowl bringing the trophy to Tampa Bay. Brady finished as the QB8 last season, but will his success continue into this year?
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The Buccaneers system is perfect for a fantasy QB. High passing, elite weapons, and chemistry all sitting right there for Brady. 
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The Buccaneers finished with the 3rd-highest passing percentage (65% of plays) in the NFL. Not only that, but they also completed the season with the 2nd-most passing yards just behind the Kansas City Chiefs.
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Next up, the Buccaneers became the ONLY team in NFL history to bring back all 22 of their starters. It didn’t seem possible, but the Buccaneers managed it. Not only did they bring everyone back, they also added a key missing piece to the offense, a great pass catching RB in Giovani Bernard. With the team maintaining all of their players and potentially adding new threats to the offense, the chemistry is unlike any other.
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This is one of the best offenses in the NFL! Having Mike Evans & Chris Godwin on both sides as well as Rob Gronkowski out in the field, it’s difficult not to produce points.
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The downside to Brady is the lack of rushing ability he contains. Brady is only getting older and isn’t the best dual-threat QB that some other QBs possess. 
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Brady also lacks with consistency and relies too heavily on TDs. Brady finished with the 3rd-worst consistency rating and finished with the highest TD dependency (both among top-20 QBs). Consistency rating is calculated by a player’s weekly deviation divided by his fantasy average ppg. This is used to determine how consistent a player was. TD dependency is calculated by a player’s total points divided by the total points produced by TDs. This determines how dependent a players fantasy value is with TDs.
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Brady looks to be a candidate with slight risk. Although the ceiling is high, I’m expecting a similar output from last year. Expect him to finish as a low end QB1 this season.

- @fantasyfootball.knowitall


Can Brady replicate another QB1 season?

Tom Brady

Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are the two star receivers on the Falcons. Julio has been in the league for 10 years and has more than shown what he’s capable of, but Ridley only has 3 years of experience in the league and has already proven he can compete with the best. As a first round pick, Ridley had a lot of potential. In his first two seasons, he put up some pretty good stats, breaking 800 yards twice and putting up 17 touchdowns over those two seasons. But in 2020, Ridley took it to the next level. He dropped almost 1,400 yards (5th in the league) and 9 touchdowns. Ridley was a consistent threat throughout the whole season, proving that he is a #1 caliber receiver.
Another important stat for fantasy wideouts is target share. Players get more chances for targets when they have shown that they can get open more consistently. Ridley has shown that he can get open on multiple occasions. And the more he gets open, the more Matt Ryan throws the ball his way. In fact, in the 7 games that Julio and Ridley played together, Ridley had 64 targets, in comparison to Julio’s 61. That’s not a huge disparity, but when we’re comparing a veteran player to a 3rd-year player, that’s very impressive. Some might argue that Julio missed parts of those games too, so he really would have had more targets. But even if that were the case, Ridley still would have matched his targets. Ridley has had more than 6 targets in every game but one. He averaged the 6th most targets per game in the NFL in 2020, in only his third year. And on top of all that, Ridley had a 25.9% target rate, whereas Julio only had a 23.8% target rate.
When drafting a team, you should look at who will have the opportunities to get yards and touchdowns. There aren’t many players that have the potential of Calvin Ridley in that regard. Ridley racked up an impressive 26 red zone targets in 2020, second only to the consensus #1 WR last year, Devante Adams. He also led all receivers in air yards on the season with 2,063. For comparison, 2nd place in that category was Tyreek Hill with 1,762 yards; that’s over 300 yards behind Ridley. 
In Julio’s 8 games, he was only a top 10 WR twice: week 6 where it was a crazy offensive match against the Vikings (a combined 845 yards and 7 touchdowns), and week 1 against an awful Seattle secondary. In the remaining 6 games he played he didn’t play well. He put up mediocre stats in 2 of them, but they were playing against bad secondaries in both Detroit and Carolina. Calvin Ridley, on the other hand, produced 6 games that were top 10 in full PPR leagues, including being top-5 in scoring amongst receivers (in full PPR leagues) 4 times. Also, although last year Julio averaged 13 more yards per game, Ridley had many more opportunities to score. In the 8 games they both played together, Ridley managed to score 6 touchdowns, while Julio only scored 2. In the red zone last year, Calvin Ridley was targeted 27.08% of the time while Julio was only targeted 11% of the time.


Every year, there are tons of players that may cost an owner his season. Some of these players include Julio Jones, Saqaun Barkley, Christian Mccaffrey, OBJ, and many more. All the owners of those players complain about how it’s not fair and how they would have won if they had other players. But there’s a very easy way to trim the percentage of injuries on your team. Draft players that don’t get injured as much. Some injuries are very difficult to predict. Take Saquon’s injury for example. No one expected him to be out for the season. But there are some players that just get injured on a yearly basis. Gronk is a good example of one of those players, missing 29 games in his whole career. According to sportsinjurypredictor.com, Julio has a 93% chance of getting injured in 2021, and a 15% of getting injured each game. For comparison, Ridley only has a 74% chance of getting injured next season, and only an 8% chance of getting injured in each game. After having both a high ankle sprain and a re-aggravated hamstring injury both in 2020, it’s easy to see that Julio will miss at least a few full games. Throughout his career, he’s either hurt his hamstring or ankle/foot 21 times. Ridley, on the other hand, only has a 74% chance of missing half a game and an 8% chance of missing a full game.  
After all of these stat comparisons, it’s hard to say that Ridley won’t be the #1 WR in Atlanta in 2021.  The Calvin Ridley detractors always say that his stats were inflated from Julio’s absence for half the season. But they all ignore that Ridley plays on an elite level even if Julio is on the field. Ridley’s skill compensates for Julio’s absence, especially considering the fact that Ridley stays relatively healthy, whereas Julio has been injured on multiple occasions in recent years. Ridley is definitely going to be the #1 in Atlanta in 2021. There should be no reason to pick Julio over Ridley in fantasy.

New WR #1 in Atlanta?

As we enter March, the dynasty season is in full swing. As the NFL gears up for the NFL draft, age becomes a focal point of dynasty value. As a result, now is the perfect time to approach your league-mates with offers for some of the older players who aren’t as fun to own in dynasty despite the value they provide. For a contending team, a cheap veteran WR addition can make the difference for a championship. For a rebuilding team, any player who isn’t under 26 almost becomes a must-sell item. In this article, I’ll illustrate some veteran WRs that you should target in contending dynasty leagues, as well as what you should look to pay during this sweet spot for acquiring veterans.
Tyler Boyd
From weeks 1–11, with franchise QB Joe Burrow healthy, Tyler Boyd was the WR11 with 69 catches for 710 yards and 3 TDs. However, after Burrow’s injury, he was WR89 with only 10 catches for 131 yards and 1 TD. Burrow’s injury clearly affected Boyd and resulted in the WR’s first season under 1000 yards since 2017 despite being well on pace to set a personal best in yardage with Burrow under center.
One small concern for Tyler Boyd that prospective contending buyers should consider is the possibility that Burrow does not return in time for the 2021 season opener. However, as reported in January by ESPN’s Ben Baby, who primarily covers the Bengals, Burrow’s leg “looks like it’s about 10 to 12 weeks out from surgery.” according to Burrow himself. This report came out around 6 weeks after Burrow’s surgery, so the Bengals’ signal-caller is clearly ahead of schedule. Burrow has also said that he’s “looking real good to start the season the way [he] want[s] to.”
We can get a good picture of the Bengals’ 2021 passing offense by looking at weeks 3–11, which is the timeframe in which rookie Tee Higgins was a consistent facet of the offense. At 6’4 210, Tee Higgins worked primarily on the outside (23% slot rate), with Boyd working in the slot on 77% of his snaps, according to Playerprofiler. Veteran AJ Green is expected to leave in free agency this offseason which should open up more opportunities for Higgins and Boyd. Between weeks 3–11, Boyd’s target share was 24.1%, Higgins was 21.2%, and Green’s was 18.0%. Should the Bengals not add any significant weapons, Boyd’s target share should either remain unaffected or increase in 2021. Additionally, the volume is there for the Bengals’ offense to have productive weapons. From weeks 1–11, the Bengals averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game which ranked 2nd in the NFL. Additionally, negative game scripts arise from a poor defense that leads to pass-heavy scenarios. As quantified by Playerprofiler, the Bengals played behind by an average of 3.5 points in the 2020 season, which ranked 24th in the NFL.
By and large, Tyler Boyd is a productive slot receiver with a QB who likes to target the slot. With Burrow healthy, Boyd was WR11 and was on pace for the best season of his career. With AJ Green leaving in free agency, Tee Higgins will hopefully take a step forward in the offense. As a result, Boyd should be a strong WR2 in 2021 should Burrow return for week 1, which looks like a real possibility. He has a carved-out role as the slot receiver and shouldn’t be threatened for targets, even if the Bengals surprisingly add another significant offensive weapon. Boyd should be a trade target for win-now teams, and he can be bought for a late 1st or early 2nd.
Robert Woods
Since arriving in Los Angeles in 2017, Robert Woods has been a great fantasy producer, including 3 top 15 seasons in a row since 2018. He’ll enter his age 29 season in 2021 and will have a depreciated price relative to his low WR1 production with newly arrived Matthew Stafford. With Stafford’s trade to Los Angeles, the Rams offense should get more dynamic by going from an infamous “dump-off” QB to one of the league's best deep passers. In 2020, Stafford’s intended air yards per attempt (per NextGenStats) ranked 8th in the NFL at 9.0 compared to Goff’s 38th ranked 6.5 intended air yards per attempt. This change in QB should benefit Robert Woods, the WR1 in the Rams offense.
In 2020, the Rams ran the ball at the 7th highest rate in the NFL at 44.25%. Additionally, the Rams’ two leading WRs-Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods- had an average depth of target 6.44 and 6.93, respectively which ranked 84th and 82nd in the NFL out of 88 WRs with 50+ targets. Needless to say, they operated relatively close to the line of scrimmage. In a sense, the WRs operated as an extension of the run game, and if you combine that with the reports of a rift between Goff and McVay, you could make an argument that McVay had a specific goal for the offense in 2020: take the game out of Jared Goff’s hands. This can be seen in the Woods’ season numbers as the WR still put up his low WR1/high WR2 numbers on similar targets despite not cracking the 1000 yard mark for the first time since 2017. With Stafford in 2021, Woods should work more down the field and put up more yardage than 2020 while still seeing an elite level of targets. With Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett likely hitting free agency, there is a possibility for slightly more volume for Woods. His average depth of target was at its floor in 2020 and has nowhere to go but up. Woods is a great trade target for win-now dynasty teams looking to add another WR. He can be bought from a rebuilding team for a late 1st or early 2nd in non-SF formats.

Keenan Allen
This is a relatively simple one; in 2020, Keenan Allen was top 5 WR with ROTY Justin Herbert until he missed the last few games of the season. Allen had 19.05 PPG in his 12 full games of the season, which can be extrapolated to 304.8 fantasy points or WR4. As Justin Herbert builds on his historic rookie season, expect Keenan Allen to offer massive upside to your fantasy team. He’s cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas despite similar ages and production. He’s worth around a mid 1st in non-SF formats.

Robby Anderson
Robby is a cheaper veteran to acquire but one who can return good value in 2020. All three of the Panthers’ WRs enjoyed productive seasons with top 25 PPR seasons and 1000 scrimmage yards each. Furthermore, the trio did it with only 10 receiving TDs total. With Samuel a free agent, there will likely be vacated targets for Anderson should the Panthers opt not to add more WRs. Furthermore, a QB upgrade *could* be in store for the Panthers. While the Texans are holding firm with Watson, the Panthers are certainly in the running to make a big trade. At best, they get Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 25+ TDs in the last 3 years, and at worst, they keep Teddy Bridgewater, who has only thrown 15 TDs in his best year. Keeping Bridgewater would provide similar value for Anderson as he had last year (strong WR2 in PPR) while adding Watson can only mean good things for the offense. There is a good possibility that the Panthers address QB in the draft, but the frontrunner for that pick is NDSU’s Trey Lance, who is expected to sit a year behind the starting QB of the team that drafts him. Anderson can be bought for a mid to late 2021 2nd in non-SF formats.

Keenan Allen, Robby Anderson, amongst others.

Veteran WRs to trade for in dynasty including a potential top 5 WR in 2021.

It should be easy to tell that this isn’t the most star-studded QB pool. In fact, none of these QBs threw for over 3000 yards last season The amount of QBs from this list who have the possibility of starting a game next year is around two to three.

Jameis Winston

Estimated value: 1 year-12 million

In 2019, Winston had an up-and-down year, to say the least. Winston threw 33 TDs and led the league in yards as well as a league-leading 30 INTs. The NFL’s first 30 TD-30 INT season was met with little fanfare as Winston was replaced by now seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady. On the other hand, Winston’s 2020 was less eventful as the former 1st overall pick signed a team-friendly deal with the New Orleans Saints for around 1 million with the goal to learn from Drew Brees and Sean Payton which was described by Winston as, “very intriguing for a young quarterback like myself.” Even when Drew Brees got hurt, Payton opted to start Taysom Hill who the team extended prior to the 2020 season. This can be read in two different ways. Either Payton wants Hill to be the starter or he wanted to keep Winston’s price low after seeing Teddy Bridgewater get a big deal after filling in for Brees in 2019. In fact, Ian Rappoport has reported that Jameis is the “likely starter in 2021” for the Saints. For fantasy purposes, it is best if Winston stays in NO as Payton can maximize his strengths. Additionally, keeping him on the Saints prevents Taysom Hill from starting which is better for all of the Saints’ weapons from a fantasy football perspective.

Mitch Trubisky

Estimated Value: 1 year-7 million

Trubisky has fallen from grace since being picked 2nd overall in 2017. After watching his fellow 2017 QBs get the 1st and 2nd largest contracts in the NFL, Trubisky will hit free agency in a couple of days. Like many 1st round QB busts before him, he’ll likely get his second contract as a backup for another team. However, per ProFootballTalk the Bears have not ruled out the possibility of bringing Trubisky back. After being benched for Nick Foles earlier in the season, Trubisky returned in time for an easy closing schedule in week 12. In response to facing the 7th (twice), 31st, 23rd, 24th, and 26th easiest schedule (as well as significant help from a churning run-game), Trubisky posted decent numbers (250 passing yards per game and 1.667 passing TDs). If that’s enough for the Bears to bring him back for a single year, he should thank his lucky stars (and the NFL schedule makers). However, if Chicago isn’t the destination for Trubisky he could find work backing up for many teams; the Broncos or Lions come to mind if a team is looking for QB competition.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Estimated Value: 1 year-8 million

Fitzpatrick was successful in 2020 as a starter as well as in relief of Tua Tagovailoa. Brian Flores has been public about how they’d like to keep Fitz if possible. However, with the lowered cap space, that might not be feasible or work with the Dolphins’ plans. Fitzpatrick seems like the perfect candidate for a QB competition making the Broncos, who are looking for a veteran QB, a good candidate if retirement isn’t on the table.

Jameis Winston... eat that W

Last Minute Free Agency Rundown: QB

Chris Carson-Seattle Seahawks-Estimated value: 3 years 22 million

As reported by Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, the Seahawks are unlikely to resign Chris Carson. Carson, who had rushed 1000 yards in his previous two seasons, missed 4 games due to injury and failed to crack 700 yards on the season. When healthy, Carson was used sparingly with no games over 20 carries after 5 such games in 2018 and 8 in 2019. After firing their offensive coordinator and unexpectedly going into trade talks regarding Russell Wilson, the Seahawks’ offensive identity could change in 2021, but Carson is likely not in their plans. I would guess that we see Carson sign a Melvin Gordon-type deal to be the veteran leader of a committee of a young offense. This year that would likely be Miami and the New York Jets, who are the frontrunners for every free agent RB.

Kenyan Drake-Arizona Cardinals-Estimated Value: 2 years 16 million

In 2019, the Cardinals traded a 6th rounder for Kenyan Drake, who exploded down the stretch of the season for 5.2 yards per carry and 8 TDs on the ground, as well as 28 catches for 171 yards. However, the Cardinals, instead of signing Drake to a long-term deal, placed the transition tag on Drake. Now, after a relatively disappointing 2020 season compared to his 2019 finish, Drake will likely hit free agency. Drake was given 239 carries yet barely squeaked out 4 yards per carry and contributed less in the passing game. Additionally, Kliff Kingsbury has recently discussed his confidence in Chase Edmonds, indicating Drake’s impending departure. Drake could sign a deal to lead a young committee such as the NFC West division rival Seahawks. With Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde as free agents, the team could opt to sign Drake rather than let Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas be their rushing attack.

James Conner-Pittsburgh Steelers-Estimated Value: 2 years 10 million

A bit of a fall from grace for the hometown kid turned pro-bowler, Conner has missed 9 games since that 2018 season and hasn’t come close to replicating the season. As a result, he’s unlikely to fetch a large free agency deal and could easily end up as a backup. His path to fantasy relevance-even for a few weeks- would come from injury to a lead back or if he were to sign to be the 1B of a rushing attack. One possibility for the latter is to sign with the Jets if they decide their offensive identity in the run game is with a committee approach. The Jet’s new OC, Mike LaFleur, came from the 49ers with HC Robert Saleh. LaFleur, who was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers, is the brother of Packer’s HC Matt LaFleur, who employs a committee approach much like the 49ers. If he doesn’t land in a committee, he’s useless for fantasy except as a handcuff.

Leonard Fournette-Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Estimated Value: 1 year 5 million

Fournette’s year in Tampa Bay was relatively disappointing in the regular season. Fournette suffered an ankle injury and was unable to retake the starting job. However, with Ronald Jones II out at the end of the regular season as well as one week of the playoffs, the Buccaneers rode the hot hand, and Playoff Lenny delivered with 300 rushings yards and 150 receiving yards as well as 4 total TDs. Fournette might be able to parlay this performance into a decent free-agent contract.


Let's dive in.

Last Minute Free Agency Rundown: RB

As of the publishing of this article, tomorrow is the beginning of the legal tampering period. For those unfamiliar with that term, legal tampering is the period in which agents can negotiate with other teams for unrestricted free agents. In this 4 part series, we’ll highlight the 4 fantasy positions’ free agents, potential landing spots, and fantasy impact. Enjoy!

Kenny Golladay
Estimated Value: 4 years-64 million
Golladay missed 11 games in 2020, but the 2019 Pro Bowler is likely to leave Detroit barring any franchise tag. The 6’4 WR would be able to fetch a good payday to be another team’s alpha WR. We can likely rule out a couple of locations, such as the Ravens, who have already come out and said that they don’t want to shell out for Robinson or Golladay, or Patriots who currently employ Matt Patricia, Golladay’s former head coach. Patricia wasn’t the most liked during his time in Detroit. Some possibilities are the Dolphins or Colts, both in need of a fantastic jump-ball WR. While Devante Parker and Michael Pittman are decent, both teams could benefit tremendously by adding an elite WR to help their struggling QBs. Furthermore, the Jets are also in contention for the talented WR.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Estimated Value: 4 years 60 million
After a disappointing third-year season following the departure of Antonio Brown, there was genuine concern about Smith-Schuster from some. He rebounded well in a contract year with 97 catches for 831 yards and 9 TDs. One reason for the dip in yardage production is the His average depth of target of 5.6 was the lowest in his career, and when compared to his excellent 2018 season (8.7 aDOT), the change is night and day. This can be explained by Ben Roethlisberger’s league-low 2.3 seconds to throw, which allowed his WRs very little time to get downfield. Even so, Smith-Schuster’s check-down capabilities can be very useful to a team, even if it is less than ideal for fantasy usage. JuJu has expressed interest in staying in Pittsburgh, but the team has little space to resign him and will likely focus on resigning key defensive pieces and operating with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool as their WRs. Possible landing spots for the slot receiver include the Jets, Ravens, and Washington Football team, who could all use upgrades at the position. Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead, and Steven Sims are all relatively unathletic, underproductive, or expensive when compared to Smith-Schuster, and each receiving corp could use an upgrade. For fantasy, Smith-Schuster is only 24 and should be a good WR2 in a less crowded offense.
Corey Davis
Estimated Value: 3 years-40 million
The former 5th overall pick has had a relatively disappointing career up to this point, but Davis broke out in 2020 for a career-high in yards, touchdowns, and catches (tie for career-high) opposite of A.J. Brown. As the Titans denied his 5th-year extension earlier in the year, he’ll hit free agency. Davis has the build of an alpha WR but hasn’t had much success as the WR1 on his team (whether that be his fault or not). He instead thrived last year opposite of the dominant A.J. Brown. Possible landing spots include the Patriots, Ravens, and Titans. For the Patriots, I have held back from putting them on this list for WR singings due to their history of not making a big splash in free agency for WRs. Besides a 5 year 28.5 million dollar contract for Danny Amendola in 2013, they haven’t spent more than 20 million dollars on a free agent WR in the last 10 years. However, Davis could be a good, cheaper signing for a position of desperate need for the Patriots. The Ravens could also be interested in Davis as a big-body weapon for Lamar Jackson. As of now, Miles Boykin is the only WR on the team over 6’0 unless they resign Dex Bryant. Nonetheless, Davis would be a clear upgrade over both and an added safety blanket for Lamar Jackson. Finally, the Titans. Right now, the only relevant WR under contract in 2021 for the Titans is A.J. Brown. Resigning Corey Davis would make all the sense in the world if the Titans didn’t have the 4th worst defense in the league last year. Nonetheless, WR is an undersold need for the Titans. For fantasy, none of these landing spots are ideal. These teams had the 3rd, 1st, and 8th worst passing offenses in the league, but the reality is that teams that want Davis are those that want a talented WR for cheap due to a lower prioritization of passing in the offense.
Curtis Samuel
Estimated Value: 4 years-48 million
Samuel is an intriguing talent as a WR with low 4.3 speed who is also used in the run game. In 2020, Samuel put it all together with upgraded QB play for 851 receiving yards and 200 rushing yards. His versatility will be very enticing for teams as he enters free agency. Possible landing spots include Green Bay, Washington Football Team, and New England. In Green Bay, he would operate as the WR2 behind Davante Adams, giving Rodgers, the 2020 MVP, the weapons that he desires. In Washington, Samuel would reunite with Ron Rivera, the coach who drafted him in 2017. Furthermore, he would add some much-needed talent to the offense that ranked 4th worse in the league last year. For New England, they would add a relatively cheap playmaker to the offense. Depending on the landing spot, Samuel can be a solid WR3 if he is able to build on his solid 2020 season.
Will Fuller
Estimated Value: 4 years-48 million
After 4 years of not staying healthy, Will Fuller changed his offseason habits and starting working out differently. As a result, he had the first healthy season of his career and was on pace for a 77–1278–12 season before missing the final 5 games due to a suspension. As a result, teams are likely to be intrigued by Fuller’s upside yet wary due to his injury history. One popular landing spot is the Green Bay Packers, who pursued the speedy WR via trade prior to the in-season deadline.

Last Minute Free Agency Rundown: WR

Over the course of the 2020 season, Chase Edmonds played a complementary role to Kenyan Drake but was still able to find fantasy success due to his presence in the passing game. Edmonds had only 98 carries for 448 yards and 1 TD on the ground but was able to turn 67 targets into 53 receptions, 402 yards, 4 TDs, and an RB26 season. Now, Kenyan Drake’s packed up and ready for a vacation in Vegas while Edmonds gets to enjoy the backfield to himself… right?

Probably not.

While it is fun to imagine your favorite scatback in a full role, it’s time to pump the breaks. In recent years, there have only been a couple of players to go from complementary piece to feature back (Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler come to mind), but the majority enjoy a couple of fantasy-relevant seasons before being replaced by a complete player (e.g., Duke Johnson and Tarik Cohen).
In a recent poll conducted by my friend FNTSYCoverage on his Instagram, 77% of fantasy football fans thought Chase Edmonds would be the starting RB in Arizona next year. Furthermore, on a poll by my friend Fantasy Guides, 50% thought Edmonds would be an RB2 next year, with 8% saying he would leap into RB1 range.

However, if we look to the past, we find that receiving RBs who cannot co-opt a larger portion of the rushing work are typically never entrusted with a larger workload. And the few that are don’t do much with it.

Of running backs who finished top 36 with a target share of >10% and a rush attempt share of <25%, we see some names that frequently appear throughout this article.

To me, this does not bode well for Edmonds. All of these RBs were replaced with more complete players or only produced as the third-down RB while the lead-back learned how to become a bell-cow.

And why should Kliff Kingsbury view Edmonds as a lead back? He’s 205 pounds with a BMI of only 30. For a lead back, you’d want a guy who’s 210+ with a BMI of 32+. To put it simply, he’s not built to carry a larger workload.

Furthermore, I’m not sure Edmonds can be a lead back due to mediocrity as a runner. To demonstrate this, let’s take a look at a metric that attempts to separate a running back from his situation: juke rate. Edmonds’ juke rate of 16.0% ranked 52nd in the league. His juke rate was more similar to J.D. McKissic (16.4%) and Nyheim Hines (16.3%) than Austin Ekeler (24.1%)and Aaron Jones (22.3%). To make it worse, Edmonds put up the majority of his rushing numbers against easier competition. Edmonds faced light-boxes at the 3rd highest rate in the league, with over 67% of his carries coming with six or fewer players in the box.

The film confirms what we see in the advanced metrics. Chase Edmonds cannot break tackles. If entrusted with a larger rushing workload, he would likely struggle.

Looking at size and rushing, Chase Edmonds compares more to RBs like Nyheim Hines and J.D. McKissic than RBs to who you would feel comfortable giving just 150 or 200 carries. Sure, they may have finished in the top 24 for RBs, but as we in the chart above, they were closer to RB30 in PPG, and all played 15–16 games, inflating their final totals.

Now, it is important to consider that people aren’t valuing Chase Edmonds as the next Austin Ekeler… for now. Right now, the fear of the draft is definitely holding Edmonds’ value down for now. If you like to take risks, you could make more profit IF the Cardinals do not opt to select an RB in the earlier rounds of the NFL draft. If so, Edmonds would rise in value significantly and would open a stronger sell window.

However, it would be prudent to sell an RB who would have his value tanked by the upcoming NFL draft should the team opt to draft an RB in the first 3 or so rounds. Obviously, Edmonds would become the clear backup if the team selected Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, or Javonte Williams. Furthermore, there are still some veteran RBs left in free agency, yet to be signed. This includes James Conner and Todd Gurley, who would likely be the starter should they be signed by the Cardinals.
But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Cardinals forgo the RB position to address other needs in the draft. While they do have a need at RB, they are also in need of CB, OL, and TE. Edmonds, who I believe isn’t a great runner, would have a relatively average season and likely would show that he’s not fit to be the guy for the Cardinals backfield. He could hit free agency after the 2021 season and resume backup duties in another uniform.

I’m not the type to play dynasty fantasy football like redraft formats, so for me, I’m looking to sell Edmonds where I can, for the right price. A likely one-year rental does not appeal to me. That doesn’t mean you have to DM all the league-mates you can reach saying you’re practically giving away Edmonds for free, but you can extract value now before a possible dramatic fall. Some players and picks with similar values and ADPs to Edmonds are as follows: Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Terrace Marshall, Kenny Gainwell, 2021 early 2nd in 1QB, 2021 mid 2nd in Superflex, and Ronald Jones. For me, I’d want all of those players/picks over Chase Edmonds.

Akash is back at it again with the scoop.

Chase Edmonds: A Screaming Sell

Before the 2020 NFL draft, nearly everyone had D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor as their rookie RB1 and RB2 (or vice versa). However, as the night went on and QBs and WRs fell into landing spots, we had gone through most of the 1st round without seeing a single RB taken.
That is until the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs shocked the world at the 32nd pick by taking LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Helaire shot up dynasty draft boards and was quickly deemed the clear rookie RB1 by some due to the narratives surrounding Andy Reid RBs and the system he uses. Long story short, people were searching/hoping for the next Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, or Brian Westbrook.
By June/August, it was already too late, and the reactionary cement poured after the NFL draft had already set. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted in the top 12 of most non-superflex startups and top 6 in non-superflex redraft leagues once Damien Williams opted out. In fact, in a dynasty startup that I participated in last summer, Edwards-Helaire was drafted before notable names such as Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill.
By and large, we (the fantasy community) should have seen the writing on the wall. Clyde was being drafted at his absolute ceiling, and there was a near 100% chance that he would either meet expectations or massively disappoint relative to his level of hype. Unfortunately, the latter came to fruition.
From weeks 1–6, things were shaping up nicely. Edwards-Helaire was the RB9 with 15.9 PPR PPG with more than 11 points every week. What’s more, Edwards-Helaire was doing this with only 1 total TD in that span, the long run scored in the season-opener against the Texans. If our expectations were a crazy, fun spring break rave, then this reality was a house party. While not as insane as a rave, who’s going to turn down a house party.
However, the party ended suddenly as the cops were called to end the fun down in Kansas City. That cop is better known as LeVeon Bell. From that moment on, Clyde was stuck in a committee. The year turned into one to be forgotten for the once consensus rookie RB1.
Edwards-Helaire failed to top 10 rush attempts in the 3 games after LeVeon Bell was signed, and while he did play well against Las Vegas in week 11, there was little to be excited about. Meanwhile, his fellow rookie RBs flashed potential and excited many dynasty owners. Colts’ rookie RB Jonathan Taylor took advantage of an easy schedule to end the year with 651 rushing yards in his last 5 games to go with 8 total touchdowns. Taylor averaged 26.1 points per game over that span and has since jumped in dynasty rankings. Lions’ rookie RB D’Andre Swift earned his first start of the season in week 10 against the Washington Football Team and put up 25.9 points. Swift missed a couple of games due to a concussion but picked up where he left off and ended the year with 17.6 points per game from weeks 10–17. Antonio Gibson exploded for a 3 touchdown performance against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving primetime before dealing with a turf-toe injury throughout the year. JK Dobbins scored a TD in every game that he played from week 11–17 and scored more than 12 points in each of those games. UDFA James Robinson has been a consistent staple of the RB1 conversation since he took over the workhorse role and finished as the RB7 despite missing the final two games. After languishing lower on the depth chart due to a litany of injuries, Cam Akers took over as the workhorse and impressed with 390 rushing yards between weeks 12–15 before a high-ankle sprain kept him out of week 16 and hampered him in week 17. However, he returned in full form for the playoffs and posted 272 total yards and two TDs. Even Packers’ rookie RB A.J. Dillon got in on the fun with his monster performance against Tennessee in the absence of Jamaal Williams.